Why does Putin keep fighting?
Five hundred plus days into the war, “the three-day war” from the dreams of Putin and many have, including myself, stated that it has been already lost by Russia from a strategic point of view.
Their war goals keep changing depending on the situation on the front and general hostilities aimed towards the Kremlin in the international environment, but we have to agree by now that the initial goals were, as much as we can be sure, revolving around these general points: international recognition of the annexation of Crimea, Donbas, and the Eastern & Southern Ukraine; regime change in Kiev towards a less hostile government aimed at a future absorption of the rest of the country into the Russian Federation; reestablishing the spheres of influence; weakening NATO and a confrontation with the international order, the rule-based system and democratic world.
Nowadays, his war aims might be the same, but he has been forced to move the goal post a couple of hundred meters back to such a degree, that the most he can hope for now, realistically speaking, is to hold on to the territory that the Russian army has managed to temporarily occupy. In all honesty, he hasn’t been able to do as much either, with a couple of directions developing in an unfortunate manner for the invading force, especially the Bakhmut area where the largest horrible loss of life took place to take it.
Why does Putin keep on fighting?
Right now, there is little motive for him to stop, the army hasn’t suffered a collapse, neither did the fronts, the Ukrainian offensive is slowed down because of the fortifications, mining and lack of ammunition or specialized vehicles. At home, the situation is as stable as it can be for the moment, at least as much as we can or are allowed to see through this fog of war. That does not mean that the environment cannot change fast and dramatically which might transform it into a nightmare and a worst-case scenario. We already have a precedent.
There are various theories and especially lots of speculation going on in the academic sphere, which is why we can never be too sure about any of them. I will nevertheless try to portray two of the sounder ones, while also keeping in mind that it can be a combination of both, all of the other ones which I haven’t written about, or just a few, but I can safely say that there isn’t no one response for all of this.
Regime fall
If we accept that the war has been already lost, strategically, and now we are just seeing the last couple of phases of it, then we could speculate that an option for Putin and Russia right now would be to cut their losses and retreat. We do have to understand the fluidity of war, the unpredictability of it and that lots of unseen actions might unfold which might also drag this war into another dimension, more actors can at any time enter the fray changing the balance of power and operational strength and so on.
We also need to understand that no nation/empire that has entered a war of conquest and has failed in reaching its objectives has simply walked out of it to cut their losses. Their leaders have kept on fighting to the end, declaring total wars, since they knew that once they have lost it all, their own lives would be forfeit, the whole system would come crashing down and, especially true for the totalitarian ones, their “divine” work would all be for nothing. From the start we should realize that the humanitarian factor has, in general, been the least of their concerns, as it is the case in this war as well. Putin and his circle show little regard for human life as I have written at the start of the war (https://cristiandorobantu.substack.com/p/irational). The same was true for the Soviet Union.
From all we can shape up to now, we have seen the hesitancy of Putin’s regime to declare general mobilization, nationwide martial law, which in all cases would be necessary for a war of this magnitude, if he wouldn’t be afraid of the popular response. We have also seen the events that unfolded in the 24-hour failed coup of Prigozhin and his PMC Wagner. Indeed, for the moment, they have yet to suffer for it, not really – the stripping of heavy military vehicles and weapons is not really that drastic, nor are the other subsequent actions taken against them. I say this because if we are to compare this particular situation with other similar events in history and the “guide book for the totalitarian leader”, it all appears as a huge weakness. In the past, the rebels where mercilessly taken down, swiftly executed, showing great strength and a warning to other potential internal players that might have thought about challenging the top.
For a paranoid leader like Putin, a former KGB operative, born and molded by paranoia, secrecy and schemes, which also takes history to the letter fearing a 1917 type situation, surely this must occupy a lot of space in his mind and thinking so, most likely, he is trying a balancing act to keep this war going as to outlast the West, to grind it to a halt, to stop the help that Ukraine is getting from around the world.
A partial or full retreat might topple his dominion over Russia which translates for him, as is the case for all dictators since they all believe that without them the Apocalypse and The Rapture would soon follow, as the “death” of the Russian Federation.
Others might oppose this thread of thought, assured that he can sell any story to the Russian population and come out safe, which is not something that I agree with.
It’s because that he can’t do it that we have observed the cracking down on hard far-right nationalists and terrorists like Igor Grkin, which in all cases, has been a real critical voice against the procedures being used in fighting this war and accusing both Putin and the Russian MoD of misuse of resources and incompetency. More like him will follow suit because dissent has reached an uncomfortable level in this regard and it certainly does not help a potential withdrawal since these players would likely enervate the population, the low-ranking officers in the army, the generals and other security agents, with hostile remarks that would suggest treason of the Russian Federation if such an action would be taken.
Delusional thinking and low access to information
From all we know, the “supreme leader” might not be fully aware of what is going on. The Russian Federation is notorious for its bottom-up lies and defective chain of information.
In Romania, as kids, we used to play a game called “The Wireless Phone”. Kids would sit in a row, or shoulder to shoulder and whisper a phrase to the next kid. The last one to get the information would have to say it out loud to see if the intermediaries have changed, lied and misinformed the next one. I just want to say that 99% of the time, the phrase that the last receiver would blurt out would not be even remotely similar to what the first child had whispered.
Leaving the children games behind, this is actually a “disease” that all communist regimes have suffered form in the past, especially the USSR and now the Russian Federation. True also for totalitarian/authoritarian ones as well. I must confess that this happens still in Romania as well and I can only speculate that this is also true for the former “socialist republics”.
Ceausescu, for example, was so far out of touch with reality in his final years in power that more often than not, his commands and orders were received with perplexity or general confusion. It is also the reason why in December 1989 he did not understand the severity of the situation, nor did he understand that his subordinates were lying to him. Furthermore, without having the full picture in mind, his commands actually shortened his lifespan considerably.
Bad news is sent from the grassroots which arrives to the final receiver as marvelous news for fear of “killing the messenger”, demotion or worse. Self-conservation in general.
What we reasonably do know is that he was indeed lied to by the army about the readiness of the troops and especially their level of training and equipment, by the secret services about how they would be greeted as saviors in Ukraine, the propaganda and the “weakness” of Zelenskiy and his government.
He was also lied to about the willingness of the West to provide help to Ukraine, about the resilience and unity of the North-Atlantic Treaty member nations. Bar a couple of illiberal democracies and leaders around the world, in Europe too, everyone is doing their part, more or less, but this is another dissertation paper size article that would have to be done in order to explain all of what is happening.
Can we say for sure that he has no clue about what is happening on the front and/or at home? No. Not likely.
Does he know though what is happening in dark rooms and around the corners of every street, the conspiracy that might or might not happen behind his back? No. Not likely.
The speculation is that a combined scenario of him clinging on to the grandeur of imperial conquest, “Russian exceptionalism” and him not fully coping with reality that he keeps on fighting. He might not really accept that, as the situation stands, the future looks bleak for him and the Russian Federation, economically, politically and integrity wise. Surely, he is leaving room for the unexpected and potential further help from China and other rogue states, as it is the case anyway – in this regard we actually know that he is receiving help from China, which is providing protection gear, drones and other dual-use parts and components, from Iran they get ammo, drones and other military supplies, from North Korea with ammunition and so on.
If we consider the above mentioned, then there is no reason yet for him to back down or try to reach an agreement while he still thinks that the war can be won, which with all honesty is true. We cannot take anything for granted, the Russians won’t anyway.
We also reasonably know that he is a strong man and if we tap into the psychology of strong men, then we might understand that no strong leader backs down, not until he is fully defeated. We also know from past dictators that when the going gets tough, they double down, they outright refuse to back down and only escalate – this must also be understood by the collective West when dealing with Putin and Russia – that they cannot control him, nor the outcome, not reasonably, nor precise. It is why we must face the facts and ensure that Russia’s defeat happens. We must not be only reactive, but proactive.
There is no easy way out, not a moral and just one. At least not one that it wouldn’t turn out to be ephemeral, that would ensure the security of the European continent or future deterrence. If every leader and subordinate understands this, then we can truly brace for what it is to come if we ensure as much as we can that Ukraine wins and Russia loses.